No peace on the horizon

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Ukrainian intelligence: desperate Putin may be preparing ground assault on Kyiv, possibly involving Belarussian troops. {The Kyiv Independent 29 August}

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-planning-operation-in-northern-ukraine-including-kyiv-military-says/

FTA: Russia's military leadership had been tasked with preparing several operational scenarios for an offensive in northern Ukraine, with Kyiv and Chernihiv identified as key areas, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa said on Aug. 28 during a closed-door briefing with journalists, Suspilne reported.

Palisa said the information had been verified and that the Presidential Office had received it from several intelligence sources, without specifying whether they were Ukrainian or foreign.

"Indeed, several options were considered (in Russia)," Palisa said at the briefing.

"The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has developed possible response scenarios, including measures to defend, protect, and counter these actions."

Palisa said no new offensive groupings are currently being detected in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions. Kyiv Oblast borders Belarus to the north, while Chernihiv Oblast borders both Belarus and Russia.

"Our top priority is to prevent the conditions from emerging that would allow Russia to launch any offensive operations at all," Palisa added.

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Copyright 2026, Arthur Newhook.

The long reach of the Kremlin; dissident shot dead in Poland

generated via ChatGPT

Exiled Russian artist and dissident fatally shot in Poland, two Belarussian nationals in custody. {Sky News 16 June}

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-artist-who-criticised-putin-shot-dead-near-home-in-poland-13554708

May Robert Kuzovkov (a/k/a Semyon Skrepetsky), a brave gentleman and talented artist, rest in peace.

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Polish press: “Russian special services allegedly planned a terrorist attack in Poland using cans of explosives disguised as canned corn.”

Wikimedia Commons

{UNN 2 October} 'Instead of corn - explosive material: Russian special services prepared an insidious terrorist attack in Poland - Wiadomości Warszawy'

The European Union should have sealed its frontiers with Russia and its vassal Belarus three and a half years ago; though, even that might scarcely suffice to thwart Putin’s operatives from staging false-flag outrages, their obvious aim being to cast blame upon Ukraine and to sunder Kyiv from Warsaw. However absurd it may appear to those unclouded by Kremlin and far-left/far-right propaganda to imagine Ukraine striking a vital ally, millions—indeed, perhaps billions—particularly in the now-former United States, have shown time and again their readiness to embrace any lie, however fantastical, so long as the demagogues who utter it—Putin, Trump, and their ilk—are seen to be hurting the people in their societies whom they despise (such as Jews, Blacks, homosexuals, atheists, anyone with an IQ of three digits, so forth: it is a very long list, as we know). —Arthur Newhook, 2 October 2025.

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Putin and Lukashenko brazenly accuse British intelligence of the massacre in Bucha, and more thoughts on Putin apparently sticking with Trump to neuter the United States

Valeria Ferraro/ZUMA Press Wire/ТАСС

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, with Putin standing right beside him and fully approving, declares that British operatives were responsible for the massacre in Bucha - An obviously absurd allegation that is beyond the pale, but I suppose no less absurd than anything else their propagandists have already devised. Putin has a rabid audience of fans in the West who willingly spread every lie and distortion the troll farms in St. Petersburg and Moscow put out - and during this crisis are especially eager to engage in victim-blaming - why wouldn’t they lie about Bucha, and why wouldn’t they scapegoat the British? Tell any conspiracy theorist the British are responsible for any given crime or atrocity, and they immediately buy into it. A central, long-held tenet of most corners of the conspiracy industry is essentially that the British Empire never really went away, and British banks and interests control the planet. In league with the Jews, or something like that. Putin and Lukashenko are blatantly gaslighting everyone into believing an obvious lie, and they do it because it works. The most evil form of bullying there is, and Putin is getting away with it, just as he did with his lies about Syria, Georgia, Venezuela, the situation in his own country, Belarus, and everywhere else he has gotten his bloody hands on. (CNBC 4/12)

International Criminal Court chief prosecutor visits Bucha and declares ‘Ukraine is a crime scene’ (AFP 4/13)

Yuri Kadobnov/AFP/Getty Images

Interesting that the Russians have certainly vetted any and all potential GOP candidates in 2024, and found them wanting as Putin appears to be adamant that Trump remains the only option (see my previous post - ‘Putin and the Moscow Establishment begins making move to restore Trump in 2024.’) Trump, or the Democrat, Tulsi Gabbard, the firm number two favorite of the Russians and the one they will line up behind if Trump does not or just cannot run again; understanding that her electability at the present time is almost zilch, but they will work hard to change that if need be. The Republicans may very well win control of Congress this year, but their long-term future is not bright if Trump remains the only viable choice to lead the party. That is, not without Mother Russia’s help, at least.

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President Biden has made his most important statement of his tenure: Russian people, overthrow Putin

AP/Evan Vucci

Without any hyperbole whatsoever, I have never felt more proud of an American president as I am with President Biden today. Putin will not be tamed by any method other than putting the fear of God into him. Regime change must happen, only the Russian people can end this carnage. I’m grateful the president recognizes this fact and is calling for regime change in Moscow. His immediate predecessors wouldn’t have the guts, courage, or even desire to be so bold. Thank you, President Biden, for your firm and unwavering stance against the tyrant's genocide upon the Ukrainian people. On the same level of greatness as 'Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.' President Biden has made the most important statement of his tenure. This is what a real leader does. And ‘Murica will never be grateful for it. But the people of Ukraine, Poland, dissidents in Belarus and Russia, and more, they do appreciate it. Thank you, Mr. President, for mincing no words, and calling for Putin's ouster.  Russian people, you must overthrow Putin! Русский народ, вы должны свергнуть Путина (AP 3/26)

Typical Putin, the bloody monster: Not long after the reports came out implying that Putin and the Kremlin were now going to limit their ‘special operation’ to the Donbas region, the city of Lviv in the far west of Ukraine – very close to Poland - is attacked, again. He is a liar, he has no intention of laying off Ukraine, and he is willing to risk World War III in service of his eternal grievance over Mother Russia’s fallen empire following the Cold War. (Reuters 3/26)

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America’s president shows steady leadership as Russia’s president wages genocide against the Ukrainian people and unimaginable horror plays out; meanwhile, the American people cry about gas prices and play the blame game. Insights and headlines from another week of war in Ukraine

AP

Working to prevent World War III is a delicate operation, and President Biden is displaying proper leadership during this crisis. Not that very many Americans seem to appreciate it, but thankfully we have a leader who is not going to put fickle public opinion ahead of the lives of the Ukrainian people and global security. Sadly, I’m afraid Ukraine and other vulnerable nations will not be able to count upon America’s help in the future, and Americans are going the way of the Russians. Decaying, mean-spirited, heartless, soulless nationalists and Fascists. I support President Biden because he is essentially the only one standing between us and tyranny, even as most of our fellow Americans and their political idols embrace it. Once he is gone, America is going full-on Nazi, and the world will be an even more dangerous and unpleasant place than we already endure. 

I am sensing that most Americans are starting to become annoyed with having to pay attention to the situation in Ukraine, and only want to bitch about gas prices, illegal aliens, and made-up controversies such as Critical Race Theory or the 2020 presidential election being rigged. We can't even be bothered to any longer take precautions against a deadly virus, and shrug our soldiers at nearly one million dead from said virus. We are not a good country, Americans are not good people anymore, by and large, and can no longer be counted upon by anybody.

It is not Americans who fight for freedom anymore - indeed, too many Americans no longer really know what ‘freedom’ actually means. Instead, they embrace mindless populism. Populism is a disease. It is at once a narcissistic belief in one’s superiority, and a persecution complex of never measuring up to others around them. Populism is one desperately screaming, ‘you will respect my willful ignorance, or else.’ Desperate to never be anything other than an idiot, and willing to commit genocide to protect their stupidity. That is where we are at, as is Putin’s Russia. In both cases, it is not going to end well. Russians and Americans really no longer matter, aside from the damage they can and do inflict upon the world: It is the Ukrainian people who are either going to save their nation, Europe, and the world from its most nefarious menace, or they will perish trying. This is their 1776. Слава Україні. Via the New York Times -

WASHINGTON — President Biden will announce sanctions this week on hundreds of members of Russia’s lower house of Parliament, according to a White House official familiar with the announcement, as the United States and its allies reach for even stronger measures to punish President Vladimir V. Putin for his monthlong invasion of Ukraine.

The announcement is scheduled to be made during a series of global summits in Europe on Thursday, when Mr. Biden will press Western leaders for even more aggressive economic actions against Russia as its forces continue to rain destruction on cities in Ukraine.

In Brussels on Thursday, Mr. Biden and other leaders will announce a “next phase” of military assistance to Ukraine, new plans to expand and enforce economic sanctions, and an effort to further bolster NATO defenses along the border with Russia, Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, said on Tuesday. (Read more)

Maximilian Clarke/Story Picture Agency

Mariupol reduced to ‘ashes of a dead land.’ The scary thing is, up until now this has been a very pro-Russian city. The vast majority of residents are (or were) Russian speakers. Yet, Putin chose to punish the city the hardest of all. Pure evil (The Guardian 3/22)

‘Ukrainian forces fought off continuing Russian efforts to occupy Mariupol and claimed to have retaken a strategic suburb of Kyiv on Tuesday, mounting a defense so dogged that it is stoking fears Russia’s Vladimir Putin will escalate the war to new heights’ (AP 3/22)

Putin has used Belarus to attack Ukraine from its north, and he sought to use Belarusian soldiers as ‘cannon fodder,’ with the Belarusian dictator’s total compliance. Belarusian railway workers have put a major dent into these nefarious plans, destroying vital rail lines from Belarus into Ukraine (EuroMaidan Press 3/21)

Russian troops fire grenades and bullets at peaceful demonstrators against occupation in the city of Kherson (Sky News 3/21)

‘This is what they call the “operation of denazification.”’ One of the saddest stories yet from this unjust war: 96-year-old Holocaust survivor killed in Russian strike on the city of Kharkiv (CNN 3/21)

This man is a true hero, in a world that persecutes heroes and they are few in number: Opposition leader Alexei Navalny found guilty of ‘fraud,’ sentenced to nine additional years in prison (NPR 3/22)

‘The U.S. and Ukraine have knocked back Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to falsely frame the narrative of his brutal war, but they are struggling to get a more accurate view of the Kremlin’s invasion in front of the Russian people’ (AP 3/22)

China crash is ‘unprecedented’ given Boeing 737′s stellar safety record, says aviation analyst (CNBC 3/22)

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Invading Ukraine will be Putin's downfall, and Russia will go down with him

Belarusian soldiers are refusing to fight Ukrainians. There are numerous reports of Russian soldiers surrendering or otherwise going AWOL. Many of these soldiers are barely being fed, and the Russians have had numerous logistical issues in carrying out this invasion. Putin is decimating his own military. But a wounded animal is a dangerous one, and it is unspeakable what he may resort to. Scorched earth. When Hitler knew the war was lost, he issued the ‘Nero Decree,’ ordering all German infrastructure to be destroyed (scuttled by Albert Speer.) Putin will do the same to Russia in due time. And that time may be near.

The Daily Beast/Instagram/AP

Francis Fukuyama: ‘Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine;’ ‘Putin will not survive the defeat of his army’ 

Pregnant woman smeared by Russian propaganda as a ‘crisis actor’ gives birth in Mariupol hospital bomb shelter

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Axis of Evil: Western intelligence services determine that China asked Russia to hold off on Ukraine invasion until Beijing Olympics concluded

Sputnik/Reuters

Putin has consistently courted China and Xi as allies. Xi does not want Russia standing in the way if and when China makes its move on Taiwan. Xi is likely pleased that Putin is testing global outrage – and the limits of the international response – of a such a bold invasion in modern times. Both wish to severely weaken and even all-out destroy America, the European Union, and Western allies, and we’ve known as such for years. So it is not a shock that the Chinese are reported to have had some degree of foreknowledge of Putin’s designs on Ukraine, and perhaps the Russians know something about what Xi may be cooking up. Russia, China, and probably India, Iran, and a handful of lesser aligned powers, are forming a new Warsaw Pact style organization to counter the NATO nations. So long as they wish to destroy the West instead of living in peace with it, this is a marriage of necessity for the belligerents. Russia and China have not always been allies, and are not very likely to always remain in harmony with one another in the long-term. Ukraine is ground zero, and I fear Taiwan will be next, in their unholy war on humanity. And what is the Western world going to do about it, other than taking up arms in a wider war that would almost certainly end all life on this planet? Via the New York Times -

WASHINGTON — A Western intelligence report said senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to senior Biden administration officials and a European official. 

The report indicates that senior Chinese officials had some level of direct knowledge about Russia’s war plans or intentions before the invasion started last week. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia met with President Xi Jinping of China in Beijing on Feb. 4 before the opening ceremony of the Olympics. Moscow and Beijing issued a 5,000-word statement at the time declaring that their partnership had “no limits,” denouncing NATO enlargement and asserting that they would establish a new global order with true “democracy.” 

The intelligence on the exchange between the Chinese and Russian officials was classified. It was collected by a Western intelligence service and considered credible by officials. Senior officials in the United States and allied governments passed it around as they discussed when Mr. Putin might attack Ukraine. 

However, different intelligence services had varying interpretations, and it is not clear how widely the information was shared. 

One official familiar with the intelligence said the material did not necessarily indicate the conversations about an invasion took place between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. Other officials briefed on the intelligence declined to give further details. The officials spoke about the report on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intelligence. 

Given the close nature of the relationship between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, senior Chinese officials are likely to have briefed Mr. Xi on any important exchanges between officials of their nations in the period around the leadership summit, analysts say. 

When asked by email on Wednesday whether Chinese officials had urged Russian officials to delay an invasion of Ukraine until after the Olympics, Liu Pengyu, the Chinese Embassy spokesman in Washington, said, “These claims are speculation without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China.” 

China held the closing ceremony of the Olympics on Feb. 20. The next day, Mr. Putin ordered more Russian troops to enter an insurgent-controlled area of eastern Ukraine after state television broadcast a meeting between him and his national security council and, separately, a furious speech in which he said Ukraine should be a part of Russia. Early on Feb. 24, the Russian military began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including carrying out attacks on cities with ballistic missiles, artillery and tanks. (Read more)

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For once, a reason for (extremely) cautious optimism in dark times: A global united front emerges against Putin’s war of aggression on Ukraine

AP/Bernat Armangue

When one considers all the turmoil in the world and in our lives in recent times – COVID, rising political extremism, inflation and economic stagnation, climate change, and that is only the tip of the iceberg – it is something of a minor miracle that we are seeing such an overwhelming global response against Vladimir Putin and for the people of Ukraine from governments, corporations, media, and ordinary individuals. Truly, I have largely lost all faith in people – most of all, in fellow Americans - after the last several years, and I’m not declaring it restored now; only that there is a degree of encouragement in the moment. Some of the latest headlines - 

The United Nations votes 141-5, with 35 abstentions, to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Voting no: Belarus, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea, and Russia

‘Russia reported its military casualties for the first time since the invasion began last week, saying nearly 500 of its troops had been killed and almost 1,600 wounded. Ukraine insisted Russia’s losses were far higher but did not immediately disclose its own’ 

In triumphant State of the Union address, President Biden says of Putin: 'He has no idea what's coming'

Biden administration unveils ‘KleptoCapture’ task force to shut down Russian oligarchs

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Prayers for Kyiv: Large Russian convoy approaches the Ukrainian capital with stated goal of attacking intelligence and security installations, but large numbers of Russian troops are said to be surrendering ‘without a fight’

Reuters

The true state of the Russian military is being exposed for all the world to see, and this is not the Red Army of World War II by any stretch. (NOTE: It is impossible to document all of the concurrent developments that have been rapidly unfolding in Ukraine, and my primary purpose in keeping this blog – knowing I’m never going to make a cent from it – is for documentation of the times we are living in. This is a one-man operation. Frankly, for most of the past few days I’ve been watching coverage almost non-stop – not a moment of it via the trash cable news networks we have in the United States, but European sources such as Sky News, BBC, DW, and France 24 – and am a bit too overwhelmed to be saying much. Then again, compared to what the Ukrainian people are going through, it is a good problem to have. #StandWithUkraine.) Sky News reports -  

Russia has told people in Kyiv to leave their homes ahead of strikes on key intelligence targets - as the US said Moscow's advance on the Ukrainian capital had "stalled", with some units surrendering to President Zelenskyy's troops "without a fight". 

Russia's defence ministry said on Tuesday its forces will target the Security Service of Ukraine and the 72nd Center for Information and Psychological Operations (PSO) with strikes. 

The defence ministry added the attacks will be designed to "thwart informational attacks against Russia". 

"We urge Ukrainian citizens involved by Ukrainian nationalists in provocations against Russia, as well as Kyiv residents living near relay stations, to leave their homes." 

The warning comes as a senior US official reportedly said Russia's attack on Kyiv has "stalled", with some units "surrendering without a fight" to Ukrainian troops. 

Five dead as Russia strikes TV tower in Kyiv with stations knocked out - latest on Ukraine crisis 

The official anonymously told US media on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces have come up against several logistical issues as they continue to struggle to take control of Kyiv. 

Some units are even running out of food and fuel, the official told CNN. 

They added that Russia's advance on Kyiv remains stuck "where it was yesterday". (Read more) 

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President Biden warns Americans to leave Ukraine

AFP via Getty Images

If one is an American currently in Ukraine and somehow reading these words, ‘take heed.’ Everybody else, don’t point the finger of blame at the president when Russia invades and Americans remain stuck in Ukraine. He has given fair warning. - 

US President Joe Biden has called on all American citizens remaining in Ukraine to leave the country immediately, citing increased threats of Russian military action. 

Mr Biden said he would not send troops to rescue Americans if Moscow invades Ukraine. 

He warned that "things could go crazy quickly" in the region. 

Russia has repeatedly denied any plans to invade Ukraine despite massing more than 100,000 troops near the border. 

But it has just begun massive military drills with neighbouring Belarus, and Ukraine has accused Russia of blocking its access to the sea. 

The Kremlin says it wants to enforce "red lines" to make sure that its former Soviet neighbour does not join Nato. (Read more)

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President Biden orders 2,000 additional troops to European bases, and 8,500 more on alert, as the world waits on edge for Putin to make his move on Ukraine

Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images

Many Americans bemoan that we are ‘the policeman of the world,’ but if that were not so, Vladimir Putin would have taken over Ukraine years ago. Putin’s end game is restoring the Soviet Union, but that monster must never be allowed to reemerge. Via AP -  

BRUSSELS —President Joe Biden is sending about 2,000 troops from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland and Germany this week and shifting roughly 1,000 Germany-based soldiers to Romania, a senior administration official said Wednesday. 

Biden has said he will not put American troops in Ukraine to fight any Russian incursion, although the United States is supplying Ukraine with weapons to defend itself. 

The military moves come amid stalled talks with Russia over its military buildup at Ukraine’s borders. And they underscore growing fears across Europe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is poised to invade Ukraine. Smaller NATO countries on the alliance's eastern flank worry they could be next, although Russia has said it has no intention of initiating conflict and is willing to continue diplomatic efforts. 

The administration official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military moves not yet announced. 

Biden had said recently that he intended to provide additional U.S. forces to NATO allies in Eastern Europe as reassurance of an American commitment as treaty allies. 

The Pentagon also has put about 8,500 U.S.-based troops on higher alert for possible deployment to Europe as additional reassurance to allies, and officials have indicated the possibility that additional units could be placed on higher alert soon. The U.S. already has between 75,000 and 80,000 troops in Europe as permanently stationed forces and as part of regular rotations in place such as Poland. (Read more)

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'U.S. intelligence officials are warning European allies of a potential Russian military incursion into Ukraine'

Wikimedia Commons/Creative Commons/OSCE

Putin is on the march again - 

U.S. intelligence officials are warning European allies of a potential Russian military incursion into Ukraine, with the likelihood of one increasing as the weather gets colder. An incursion is weather-dependent, but could happen in a matter of weeks, barring intervention from the West, U.S. officials briefed on the matter told CBS News. 

Tens of thousands of Russian troops have amassed at the Ukraine border -- months after thousands of troops assembled at the border in the spring. But unlike last spring's buildup, which was regarded as a show of force, U.S. intelligence officials are warning that this one could be in preparation for an actual incursion into the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine. 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday the alliance was closely monitoring a "large and unusual concentration of Russian forces" near Ukraine's border. 

"It is urgent that Russia shows transparency about this military build-up, de-escalates and reduces tensions," Stoltenberg said following a meeting with outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel. 

Both American and British intelligence has been shared with European stakeholders. (Read more)

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Putin and Russia taking advantage of natural gas crisis to pressure regulators to allow the opening of newly completed pipeline

AP

Putin is a sociopath, in case anyone needs a reminder. -

When Vladimir Putin indicated last week that Russia could be ready to ease Europe's energy crisis, the markets breathed a sigh of relief. 

Prices for natural gas had been soaring earlier that day, part of a pattern over recent months as increased demand -- sparked by economies opening up after COVID lockdowns -- combined with lower stocks in Europe following last year's long winter. 

Russia is the largest gas supplier to the European Union, which is increasingly dependent on natural gas imports, and it has the power to make a difference. 

But there is no evidence that Russia has increased gas supplies since Putin's speech, nor for that matter, before. 

Russia says it has fulfilled its long-term contracts but experts have questioned why the country hasn't taken advantage of the prices to trade more on the European market. 

“The deliveries from Gazprom, which has a monopoly on pipeline exports of Russian gas to Europe, are at the regular rate. They have, as far as we know, followed all the contractual commitments,” Dennis Hesseling, head of the infrastructure, gas, and retail department at the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, told Euronews last week. 

He said that normally gas exporters make more gas available to dampen rising prices. 

“You would expect parties to react to price signals. In the past, we saw Gazprom reacting to opportunities in the European market. That's not happening now, and we don't know why that is not the case.” 

Some European politicians and experts are concerned that Russia is attempting to pressure regulators to approve the newly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline; other experts argue that Russia doesn't have spare gas and is trying to fill up its own storage ahead of winter. 

Natural gas is the main energy source for heating homes in the EU and is thus subject to much higher demand in the winter. 

At the moment, natural gas storage in Europe is low at around 76%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. This time last year, it was at around 95% full. 

Putin maintained last week that Russia is a “reliable supplier” to Europe that "fulfils all its obligations in full," according to a Kremlin translation of his speech, but suggested that Russia could send some additional gas to Europe. 

His spokesman Dmitry Petrov also told reporters there was "potential" for existing gas pipelines to supply more natural gas to the EU, the AP reported. 

Jack Sharples, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, who is also an expert on Russia and Gazprom, said Putin's influence on the market showed "this is a very jumpy market". 

"In addition to the supply and demand fundamentals, we're probably seeing a fair amount of speculation. This is visible in the fact that price movements [at the end of last week] have been far out of proportion to the fluctuations in physical gas flows coming into Europe." 

Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at Bruegel, argues that it is "now pretty evident" that Russia is involved in the crisis: "They want to show that gas is important, that Russian gas is important for Europe." 

"Now, they might also contribute to end this crisis and to demonstrate they are a reliable supplier. Otherwise, they would just damage further the image of gas and the role of gas in the European energy mix as being perceived as unreliable fuel," he added. 

The gas crisis could still put pressure on the German regulator and European Commission to approve the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would pump 55 billion cubic metres of natural gas per year into the bloc. 

The Kremlin has insisted the pipeline's launch would help ease the European gas crisis. 

European parliamentarians first raised the concern that Russia was withholding gas to encourage the opening of the controversial pipeline in mid-September, demanding an investigation into potential market manipulation. (Read more)

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